A buddy of mine wrote a blog post on the history of video game consoles, and asks for predictions on the next gen. What'll happen after the Wii, the PS3 and the Xbox360? I hinted a bit at the future in an earlier post, but I'll make some explicit predictions here.

That there's going to be another Xbox (The Xbox720?) is pretty much a given, I think. I think if you look at history, the next gen comes around every 5 years, so at first glance, it might seem like 2011-20013 would be a good bet for when the next Xbox comes out. However, if Sony rushes the PS4 out early, this'll probably force Microsoft to push its release date up as well.

There were rumours that Sony would drop out of the console market, but I think Sony is still in a "wait-and-see" approach, strongly leaning towards staying in. I've said it many times before: Everybody is waiting for Metal Gear Solid 4, and this'll pretty much be the game that makes or breaks the PS3. If MGS4 is successful (and based on the franchise's past success, it's almost guaranteed to be successful), it may be the catalyst that'll spark renewed interest in the PS3, both from the perspective of the consumer as a must-have console, and the developers as a profitable platform (via all the units purchased by the consumers who were waiting for MGS4 in the first place). If by some crazy fluke, MGS4 turns out to suck, I think that'll be the end of the PS3.

If the PS3 does die there, there are essentially two options for Sony. Rumour has it that Sony's entertainment division is a huge loss leader. Sony may decide to cut its losses then and there, but that puts the PSP into a sort of awkward position, and the PSP is reportedly doing well (though not as well as the Nintendo DS). The other option is to rush out the PS4, and probably a year or two later, the PSP2, and hope for better luck next time. If the PS3 does die, and they rush the PS4, I'm guessing Sony'll learn from their mistakes and make a cheaper console, perhaps stealing a few design ideas from Wii -- though make no mistake, they won't be targeting the "casual market" with the PS4, that would be diluting their name brand too much. If they decide to enter this market, and for now I'm skeptical that they will, they'd probably come up with a new series, like the "Sony HomeFun" or something like that. If, however, the PS3 does not die out, then the PS4 will probably be business as usual, non-rushed, and Microsoft and Sony will battle it out with the predicted timelines.

AS for Nintendo, I really don't know. It's completely up in the air. You have to realize here that Nintendo has created an entirely new demographic with the Wii and the DS -- The casual gamer -- and we really have no historical data to base our future predictions on. Conventional wisdom might say that when the Xbox720 and the PS4'll come out, Nintendo will have to release the Wii2, or else get drowned out in the competing hype... but do casual gamers actually bother to follow gaming news? I mean, when Microsoft and Sony launch their huge advertising campaigns in anticipation for Christmas (and it's a given that they'll be releasing their consoles right before Christmas), will these ads appear in any of the newspaper, magazines, television networks, etc. that casual gamers actually consume? Do the casual gamers even consider Microsoft and Sony's products to be competitors to the Wii, or as they seen as entirely different lines of products? If they are seen as entirely different products, the the idea of "Oh, Xbox720 is coming out soon. I better upgrade from my Wii" could seem as alien a concept as "Oh, the Mazda RX-9 (a car, in case you didn't know) is coming out soon, I better upgrade from my Black and Decker toaster."

One prediction I'm willing to make is that the successor to the DS will arrive before the successor to the Wii. Nintendo is already announcing a new model of DS, and that's not what I'm referring to. The new model of the DS is essentially the same hardware, but in a fancier looking case. I'm talking about a new portable console which plays games in some format which the DS cannot read. But the exact timeframe for when the DS2, or even the Wii2 will come out, is a mystery to me.

The problem right now is that the Wii (and the DS) is suffering from a deluge of crappy games, and this may be partially due to the unique controller hardware (game designers don't have any experience designing for these types of controls). For every Zelda or Mario 64 game, you've got WarioWare style mini-games collection clones that just aren't selling. I don't want to sound too condescending, but it's almost as if the only reason the Wii is doing so well with the casual crowd is that they simply don't know any better. They don't know what kind of quality to expect from videogames, and their standards bar is set very low. The most popular casual game seems to be WiiPlay and WiiSports, which are nothing more than tech demos from Nintendo -- an example, to other developers, of what can be done with the controller, and themselves nothing more than a collection of minigames.

Now if you visualize a spectrum, you got on the one end the casual gamer, who buy Wiis, but not 360s nor PS3s. You've got the mainstream players in the middle who could be buying any 3 of these systems, and then you've got the elitist gamers, who refuse to buy the Wii, deeming it beneath them. The question, for which I personally don't have the data to answer, is where is most of Nintendo's income coming from? Is it the mainstream, or the casual? If it's the mainstream, then Nintendo may be in a bit of trouble, as there really aren't that many games targeted at them (Mario Galaxy, Twilight Princess, and that's about it). The Wii was widely hyped before it came out, and its incredibly low price ensured there were many early adopters within the mainstream demographic, but a lot of them are losing patience with the lack of quality titles.

If, on the other hand, the bulk of sales is coming from the casual gamers, then really there is no need for Nintendo to push the development of the Wii2 or the DS2. While the flood of crap games simply won't sell because they are crap games, that doesn't really matter, because the casual gamer market is so huge, Nintendo can actually make a profit just from selling the Wii and WiiPlay alone. Plus, they're working on that exercise board thing which is again clearly targeted at the casual gamer (no advertisement featuring relaxing Yoga exercises could be considered targeting the mainstream, let alone hardcore, demographic). If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And better yet, if your customers don't know it's broke, you'll never need to fix it.

Nintendo could very plausibly just not bother with the console wars, and rake in cash from the casual market. It's guaranteed that Nintendo is working on the Wii2 -- to not work on it would be suicidally stupid -- however, that doesn't necessarily mean that Nintendo will actually release the Wii2 within the next 5-10 years. They could decide to pull out of the mainstream market completely, leaving Microsoft and Sony to duke it out there... Or they could decide to try to join in the fight.

If they decide to join in the fight, they might do so with the Wii2. I personally think this is a bad idea, but I don't think it's too improbable that Nintendo might try to make the Wii2 a panacea. However, I think it would be smarter for Nintendo, if it intends to fight the next console war at all, to do so with an entirely new product line. Keep the Wii2 (or even just the plain old Wii) for the casual market, and perhaps release the Nintendo128 for the mainstream market. That said, I really don't think I could have predicted the Wii before it was announced, which is why I'm ready to concede that there are probably people at Nintendo who are much smarter and/or creative than I am, such that they might actually make the Wii2 work in both the casual and mainstream market.

So in summary, the most likely outcome is: PS3 picks up momentum after MGS4; Xbox720 and PS4 doing business as usual; Wii sticks around and Wii2 is not in the picture; DS2 coming out "soonish". The second most likely outcome is PS3 flops; cheaper, leaner Sony product rushed; Xbox720 rushed in response; Nintendo128 announced, Wii2 still a long ways off.